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Q4 Economic & Market Outlook: The fundamental things (still) apply

Global economic growth continues to improve, allowing stocks to extend their rally on higher corporate earnings growth. Expectations for Q4 are generally positive.



The Fed's Incredible Shrinking Balance Sheet

The Fed left its target interest-rate range unchanged at 1.00%-1.25% on Wednesday, as expected, but still plans a third rate hike this year. The 2017 economic growth forecast increased modestly to 2.4%, while estimates for inflation and unemployment fell slightly. In October, the Fed will begin reducing its balance sheet of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities in its efforts to gradually normalize rates. Shrinking the balance sheet should put only moderate upward pressure on long-term interest rates. We expect a Fed rate hike in December and two more increases in 2018.
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