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Transcript
View From the Top
2019 GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE OUTLOOK
Expect a tougher climb with Brian Nick
Where do you see the global economy in 2019?
In 2018 the global economy was supported by fiscal stimulus in the United States.
Most other large economies actually disappointed versus expectations.
Global growth should be lower next year as that U.S. stimulus fades, but we don't foresee a dramatic slowdown or recession.
Headwinds are stiffening, however.
Higher interest rates and tariffs will weigh on corporate profits and potentially consumer sentiment.
As long as the world's largest economies can manage through this deceleration, we're hopeful that the economic environment will be friendly to investors.
What are some of the biggest risks that investors are considering at this stage?
Trade issues representing serious threat to us and global economic growth.
We don't expect a quick or easy resolution of the negotiations between the U.S. and China.
China is already slowing at an uncertain rate as it attempts to control financial risks.
In the United States the cumulative effect of Fed hikes since 2015 are beginning to take their toll with more potentially to come in 2019.
Given where we are in this market cycle, what is your outlook moving forward?
We expect to see positive returns across most asset classes in 2019 amid sporadic volatility.
Higher interest rates and slowing earnings growth mean U.S. stocks and bonds will both be challenged.
With rates likely to move a bit higher the parts of the U.S. fixed income market that are less sensitive to those changes in interest rates are worth including in portfolios.
U.S. dollar strength may persist unless and until the feds ceases its rate hiking cycle.
And the performance of non-U.S. stocks will improve if the dollar seasons its rise and we get hints of stronger growth in Europe and emerging markets.
How are you positioning portfolios in light of your outlook?
We believe investors should now focus on security selection rather than broad market returns.
We don't believe now is the time to move to cash. We believe risk taking will continue to be rewarded as long as it's done selectively.
In stocks we believe in looking for quality companies with strong cash flows, but we also continue to strongly favor including diversified alternatives like real estate and real assets.
We also want to make sure our portfolios are prepared for the possibility that growth next year slows more than we expect.
RISKS AND OTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS
This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or an investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor's objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors.
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain "forward-looking" information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.
This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID. In Europe this document is issued by the offices and branches of Nuveen Real Estate Management Limited (reg. no. 2137726) or Nuveen UK Limited (reg. no. 08921833); (incorporated and registered in England and Wales with registered office at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3BN), both of which entities are authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide investment products and services. Please note that branches of Nuveen Real Estate Management Limited or Nuveen UK Limited are subject to limited regulatory supervision by the responsible financial regulator in the country of the branch. In Asia this information is solely for use with professional investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap.571 of the laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made under that ordinance) and should not be relied upon by any other persons or redistributed to retail clients in Hong Kong. This information is distributed by Nuveen Hong Kong Limited (BJH146) and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
A word on risk
All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Video was filmed on December 3, 2019
Featured Speaker : Brian Nick, CAIA, Chief Investment Strategist
Nuveen, LLC provides investment advisory services through its affiliates.
685401-G-INV-AN-12/19
Expect a tougher climb with Brian Nick
Where do you see the global economy in 2019?
In 2018 the global economy was supported by fiscal stimulus in the United States.
Most other large economies actually disappointed versus expectations.
Global growth should be lower next year as that U.S. stimulus fades, but we don't foresee a dramatic slowdown or recession.
Headwinds are stiffening, however.
Higher interest rates and tariffs will weigh on corporate profits and potentially consumer sentiment.
As long as the world's largest economies can manage through this deceleration, we're hopeful that the economic environment will be friendly to investors.
What are some of the biggest risks that investors are considering at this stage?
Trade issues representing serious threat to us and global economic growth.
We don't expect a quick or easy resolution of the negotiations between the U.S. and China.
China is already slowing at an uncertain rate as it attempts to control financial risks.
In the United States the cumulative effect of Fed hikes since 2015 are beginning to take their toll with more potentially to come in 2019.
Given where we are in this market cycle, what is your outlook moving forward?
We expect to see positive returns across most asset classes in 2019 amid sporadic volatility.
Higher interest rates and slowing earnings growth mean U.S. stocks and bonds will both be challenged.
With rates likely to move a bit higher the parts of the U.S. fixed income market that are less sensitive to those changes in interest rates are worth including in portfolios.
U.S. dollar strength may persist unless and until the feds ceases its rate hiking cycle.
And the performance of non-U.S. stocks will improve if the dollar seasons its rise and we get hints of stronger growth in Europe and emerging markets.
How are you positioning portfolios in light of your outlook?
We believe investors should now focus on security selection rather than broad market returns.
We don't believe now is the time to move to cash. We believe risk taking will continue to be rewarded as long as it's done selectively.
In stocks we believe in looking for quality companies with strong cash flows, but we also continue to strongly favor including diversified alternatives like real estate and real assets.
We also want to make sure our portfolios are prepared for the possibility that growth next year slows more than we expect.
RISKS AND OTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS
This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or an investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor's objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors.
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain "forward-looking" information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.
This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID. In Europe this document is issued by the offices and branches of Nuveen Real Estate Management Limited (reg. no. 2137726) or Nuveen UK Limited (reg. no. 08921833); (incorporated and registered in England and Wales with registered office at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3BN), both of which entities are authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide investment products and services. Please note that branches of Nuveen Real Estate Management Limited or Nuveen UK Limited are subject to limited regulatory supervision by the responsible financial regulator in the country of the branch. In Asia this information is solely for use with professional investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap.571 of the laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made under that ordinance) and should not be relied upon by any other persons or redistributed to retail clients in Hong Kong. This information is distributed by Nuveen Hong Kong Limited (BJH146) and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
A word on risk
All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Video was filmed on December 3, 2019
Featured Speaker : Brian Nick, CAIA, Chief Investment Strategist
Nuveen, LLC provides investment advisory services through its affiliates.
685401-G-INV-AN-12/19
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