Commentary from Nuveen, a TIAA company

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In The Spotlight


Coronavirus: economic, market and portfolio implications

While signs point to somewhat better global growth this year, the coronavirus factor further affirms the latest guidance from Nuveen’s Global Investment Committee for lower return expectations in 2020.

In The Spotlight


Stocks showing signs of weakened immunity to virus

In The Spotlight


20/20 Vision: A Clearer Path for Growth

Nuveen, the investment manager of TIAA, shares its outlook for the year ahead.

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TRANSCRIPT As the asset management arm of TIAA,we came into the year expecting global growth to slow,but it slowed by more than we anticipated. That, along with unexpected escalation in the US-China trade war,caused global interest rates to fall throughout most of the year, and even brought the Federal Reserve back into the action,as it was forced to ease monetary policy. The good news is that the economy is now showing signs of stabilization, and trade risks may be on the decline, setting us up for a smoother 2020. We see a clearer path for global growth in 2020. Policy risks are on the decline and financial conditions are far easier than when they started the year. China and Europe still face stiff headwinds from the global manufacturing and trade slow downs. We see fewer reasons for concern in the US, where consumer spending is underpinned by solid wage growth and recent interest rate cuts have provided a boost the housing market. Global asset classes of all stripes outperformed our expectations in 2019, but we can't expect the same pace of returns in 2020. US equity valuations are at their highest in almost two years, and lower interest rates and credit spreads will limit returns in most parts of the bond market. The best trade for 2020 may be diversification. Allocating more to emerging market fixed income, international equities, and income-producing alternatives. The one thing we can say for sure about the 2020 US election is that it's garnering a lot of attention from voters and investors alike, even with a year to go, but we aren't inclined to incorporate a lot of political risk into our investment strategy at this stage. We know some candidates have proposed sweeping policy changes to sectors like health care and energy, but investors may be overestimating the chances they're ultimately enacted. There are a lot of factors that will drive markets in 2020, and the election is just one of them.

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