Hi there. I'm Neel Mukherjee, TIAA Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, and today I'm excited to share with you some of the highlights from our 2026 outlook.

This Outlook, "Skating Forward," recaps major themes that unfolded during 2025—a year defined by meaningful shifts across the global economy. It also includes our forward-looking views on growth, innovation, central bank policy, equity and fixed income markets, as well as several key areas of opportunities and risks we will be monitoring in 2026.

The market narrative going forward is likely to be driven by five important themes: 

Number one - The transition to a new era of prolific and accelerating innovation and disruption.

Two - Capital expenditures in both AI- and non-AI related areas, which likely supports economic activity.

Number three - Government activism in the private sector acts to address national security concerns.

Number four - The K-shaped consumer spending that hinges on the performance of AI and the financial markets, and inflation's trajectory.

And lastly - Geopolitical shifts as U.S. foreign policy is realigned.

As markets absorb these profound changes, and adapt to this evolving global environment, we believe investors are best served by remaining anchored to their long-term investment strategies. We hope that our Outlook will help provide meaningful context to what lies ahead in 2026, and beyond.