2021 Midyear GIC Outlook Cover

View From the Top

Whether we're talking about vaccinations, economic growth, inflation or market returns, it's fair to say that our expectations were exceeded in the first half of 2021. The dark tunnel we found ourselves in to start the year was shorter than we thought, and the light at the end of it brighter than we could have hoped for. As we look to the second half of the year, we see a global economy that will be slowing from a very high peak, and the center of gravity for growth shifting east from the U.S. to Europe and finally to Asia.

Economic policy remains extremely stimulative, and the reopening itself, as it winds its way across the globe, should keep demand quite strong. Whether that demand continues to outpace supply, resulting in inflation, remains the key concern we hear about from investors. But while we expect inflation to remain elevated over the balance of this year, especially in the U.S., we do not see it spiraling upward from here. Instead, we see workers coming back in droves into businesses looking to hire and boost productivity.

All in all, while upside surprises may be less common moving forward, we think the investing environment remains friendly and full of opportunities. Diversified investors can look to attractively valued markets in Europe and EM that are tied to the cyclical upswing we're currently seeing as well as parts of the fixed-income market that provide higher yields and greater insulation against rising rates. And real assets should continue to be a helpful addition to asset allocations in an environment of high growth, elevated inflation and low interest rates. Cutting across all of these areas is the issue of climate change, which is forcing investors to reconsider how they're allocated and what risks it presents to their portfolios.

For more on all of this as well as key investment ideas from our Global Investment Committee, check out our full midyear outlook on Nuveen.com.


This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or an investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor's objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors.

The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain "forward-looking" information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Nuveen to be reliable, and not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Company name is only for explanatory purposes and does not constitute as investment advice and is subject to change. Any investments named within this material may not necessarily be held in any funds/accounts managed by Nuveen. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Views of the author may not necessarily reflect the views of Nuveen as a whole or any part thereof.

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A word on risk
All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Video was filmed on June 22, 2021

Featured speaker: Brian Nick, Chief Investment Strategist
Nuveen, LLC provides investment advisory solutions through its investment specialists.


Viewpoints from the Global Investment Committee

Midyear outlook 2021
Our 2021 outlook released in December, “Dark Tunnel. Bright Light,” reflected the likelihood that the massive macro risks associated with the devastating coronavirus pandemic would dominate the first several months of the year. From an economic and markets perspective at least, the tunnel wound up being shorter than we expected. At this point, we think the world is at or approaching peak economic and earnings growth for the current cycle. That brings with it new concerns about inflation, rising rates and fuller valuations. Navigating these markets is likely to remain tricky, but the good news is that Nuveen’s Global Investment Committee still sees opportunities across asset classes and remains committed to offering our clients ideas for how to navigate financial markets for today and tomorrow.
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The views expressed in this material may change in response to changing economic and market conditions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns
This material is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute fiduciary investment advice under ERISA, a securities recommendation under all securities laws, or an insurance product recommendation under state insurance laws or regulations. This material does not take into account any specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on the investor’s own objectives and circumstances.