April 2026
CIO Perspectives: Seven questions investors are asking right now
The first quarter of 2026 proved to be a turbulent period for financial markets, marked by sharp swings in equity prices, shifting interest rate expectations, and a steady stream of geopolitical and policy-driven uncertainty. Against that backdrop, we have heard from a significant number of clients seeking clarity on what’s driving recent volatility and what it might mean for their portfolios. Markets move in cycles, and periods of heightened volatility can amplify short-term noise, making perspective and alignment with long-term objectives especially important in today’s environment. In this month’s CIO Perspectives, we address the seven questions we received most frequently. We offer our views on the key forces at work and what investors should keep in mind as they navigate an increasingly complex market environment.
1. Despite a steady stream of headlines and unpredictability around the globe, the U.S. economy remains resilient. From a macro perspective, what is driving that resilience and how do you assess the challenges facing the broader economy today?
On balance, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but risks are rising—shaped by some signs of fragility amid elevated geopolitical tensions. The conflict in the Middle East introduces meaningful instability, particularly given its implications for global energy markets. Should the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted, elevated oil prices could simultaneously stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth prospects. While the U.S. is relatively more insulated due to its domestic shale production capacity, major oil-importing economies such as Japan, the UK, and China face considerably greater exposure.
Within the United States, the economy entered this year with reasonable momentum, and data still confirms a resilient economy. However, cracks are emerging. Consumer spending remains strong overall, but a widening “K-shaped” divide is emerging. Higher income households continue to spend, even as lower income consumers increasingly struggle. On a more positive note, tax refunds this season are expected to surpass last year’s figures by as much as $150 billion, providing a meaningful near-term boost— especially for households earning under $200,000. Historically, U.S. consumers tend to deploy extra cash into spending, though some portion may be directed toward debt repayment or savings, given that the personal savings rate has declined in recent months.
Three headwinds temper the consumer outlook: market uncertainty, a softening labor market, and higher. . .
Authors
Niladri ‘Neel’ Mukherjee
TIAA Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer
Alberto Favalli-Ragusini
TIAA Wealth Management Director, Investment Strategy
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