December 2025
TIAA Wealth Management 2026 Outlook: Skating Forward
The U.S. economy remained resilient in 2025 despite a series of twists and turns. Inflation increased by less than feared, and the Fed cut rates three times. Investors’ worst fears about the economy peaked in April with a ~20% decline in the S&P 500; since then, stocks staged an impressive 38% rally from the lows before cooling off at the end of November.
Entering 2026, the U.S. economy continues its careful balancing act—maintaining growth while remaining agile enough to respond to changing conditions. As AI and disruptive technologies continue to gain traction across industries, we are witnessing an innovation wave that demands similar agility from investors and businesses alike. Just as a skater must look ahead while remaining acutely aware of their positioning and the ice's ever-changing texture, today's investment landscape requires a blend of confidence in the trajectory of transformative technologies and the nimbleness to adapt as market dynamics evolve.
The market narrative going forward is likely to be driven by five important themes:
- AI drives economic and market outcomes
- Innovation accelerates and expands
- Supply chain shifts and tax incentives continue to drive faster capital deployment by businesses
- The U.S. government gets active
- The global geopolitical order continues to evolve
As the U.S. economy continues skating forward, this Outlook follows a question-and-answer format addressing the most pressing concerns and top-of-mind issues facing investors in today's environment. Each section tackles key questions directly, providing clarity on the factors shaping markets and informing investment views in 2026.
Authors
Niladri ‘Neel’ Mukherjee
TIAA Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer
John J. Canally, Jr., CFA
Chief Portfolio Strategist
Alberto Favalli-Ragusini
Director, Investment Strategy
Robert Marshall
Managing Director, Head of Equities
Douglas Whang, CFA
Sr. Equity Analyst
Jill Richman
Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income
Bryan White, CFA
Director, Fixed Income
Tyler Abrahams
Director, Fixed Income
Mairaj Elahi, CFA
Director, Fixed income
Ali Dellinger
Sr. Director, Wealth CIO Communications
John Greene
Sr. Manager, Wealth CIO Investment Content
Rob Dziedzic
Sr. Manager, Wealth CIO Investment Content
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