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March 14, 2017
The impact of rising interest rates on commercial real estate
Thomas Park, Senior Director, Strategy & Research, North America, TH Real Estate; Alice Breheny, Global Head of Research, TH Real Estate

The rising interest rate environment raises concern about the potential impact on US commercial real estate property values and investment performance. Historical data shows that higher interest rates do not necessarily result in lower property values and total returns. In fact, property performance has often remained resilient in times of rising rates. A number of factors may help to protect overall real estate performance, including capitalisation rate spreads over the 10-year treasury yield, and the outlook for economic growth and real estate market fundamentals.

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August 1, 2016
Apartment "seasoning": A recipe for better investment performance?
Shannon Wright, Director, Edward F. Pierzak, Ph.D., Managing Director, TIAA Global Real Estate Strategy and Research

In this paper, we examine the relationship between apartment “seasoning,” as measured by property age, and total return investment performance using data from the NCREIF Property Index (NPI). In the case of Apartments we find that “just the right amount” of seasoning may lead investors to the most satisfying investment result.

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March 31, 2016
Real estate: End of the Road?: Assessing the Likelihood of a US Commercial Real Estate Downturn
Martha Peyton, Ph.D., Managing Director, and Edward F. Pierzak, Ph.D., Managing Director, TIAA Global Real Estate Strategy and Research

Commercial real estate (CRE) performance has been “on a roll”.  Some investors fear that the “end of the road” for the real estate expansion may be approaching.  We explore the likelihood of a US real estate downturn in the next four quarters. Our findings support our “cautious optimism” regarding US CRE prospects; we do not see the “end of the road” for the expansion just yet.

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