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November 15, 2016
After the 2016 U.S. Election: What comes next?
Brian Nick, CAIA, Chief Investment Strategist, TIAA Investments

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October 3, 2016
Q4 Economic and Investment Outlook: Race to the finish
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA; Brian Nick, CAIA, Chief Investment Strategist, TIAA Investments

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September 6, 2016
The 2016 U.S. Election: All bark, no bite for markets
Brian Nick, CAIA, Chief Investment Strategist, TIAA Investments

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July 14, 2016
Mid-Year Outlook: Is slower growth the new normal?
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist; William Riegel, CFA, Chief Investment Officer

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January 4, 2016
2016 Economic and Investment Outlook: Modest global growth and market returns
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist; William Riegel, CFA, Chief Investment Officer

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October 5, 2015
Q4 Investment Outlook: Developed markets likely to improve after rocky third quarter
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist; William Riegel, CFA, Chief Investment Officer

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September 11, 2015
Rising interest rates

As the Fed moves to raise interest rates, investors should consider the potential impact on portfolio allocations to bonds, stocks, and other asset classes.

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September 11, 2015
Impact of rising rates on equity markets
Saira Malik, CFA, Head of Global Active Equity Portfolio Management, TIAA Asset Management

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August 11, 2015
Positioning bond portfolios for rising interest rates
William Martin, Head of Fixed-Income Portfolio Management; Stephen MacDonald, CFA, Managing Director, Client Portfolio Management; Peter Moore, Director, Client Portfolio Management
 
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July 7, 2015
2015 Mid-Year Outlook: The pause that refreshes
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist

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April 2, 2015
2Q 2015 Investment Outlook: Watching the Fed
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist

Investor anticipation about when and how quickly the Fed raises interest rates will influence markets almost as much as the hikes themselves; expect ongoing volatility.

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March 13, 2015
Prepare for rising rates: Taking a fresh look at portfolio allocations
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist

Consider diversifying bond portfolios with high-yield and emerging markets bonds. Developed and emerging market stocks have tended to outperform U.S. stocks during past rate hikes.

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February 26, 2015
Dollar Power: Implications of a rising dollar
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist

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January 26, 2015
How low can you go? The risks, and rewards, of deflation
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
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January 5, 2015
2015 Economic Forecast
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist
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January 5, 2015
2015 Investment Outlook: Rougher waters ahead
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
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November 14, 2014
Over a barrel: Causes and consequences of the fall in oil prices
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
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October 1, 2014
4th Quarter 2014 Investment Outlook: Turning Point
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
The U.S. economy continues to recover at a measured, modest pace — more like a tortoise than a hare. We forecast that by the end of the year annualized GDP growth will reach 3.5%, which seems strong compared to the 2.1% average rate since 2009, but is disappointing compared to the post-war average of 4.3%. The biggest barrier to a more vigorous economic expansion remains the consumer. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) have grown by just 1.6% over the last four quarters, a full percentage point below historical norms. The consequences of the Great Recession and the Federal Reserve’s measures to address it continue to sap demand from both debtors and creditors.
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July 3, 2014
2014 Mid-Year Outlook: Keep calm and carry on
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
The global economy finished the second quarter on an upbeat note, driven by stronger results from developed economies and continued easy monetary policy from major central banks. Among the signs of economic strength heading into the third quarter: climbing global purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), rising global trade, and stable or increasing industrial production across most regions (see Exhibit 1). The U.S. economy is the main driver, with an expected second-quarter growth rate of 3.6%. Although still in the shadow of recession, Europe is showing signs of life; its economy should grow by close to 1% in the second quarter. China's growth, though still slowing from last year’s nearly 8% rate, looks to stabilize closer to a 7% pace. Japan's economy will shrink in the second quarter due to a sales tax hike, but this should not completely offset its strong first quarter (see Exhibit 2).
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April 4, 2014
Market Outlook: Delayed Gratification
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
Was investor optimism at the beginning of the year misplaced, or simply premature? January began with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at 3% as the economy looked to accelerate in the year ahead; expected corporate earnings growth of over 10% for U.S. companies suggested that equity prices could continue to rise even after the 30% gain for the S&P 500 Index in 2013. Three months later, bond yields have fallen sharply and U.S. equities are not far from where they began the year.
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February 2, 2014
2014 Market Preview: The end of easy money
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
The author provides additional support for his thesis that withdrawal of central bank monetary stimulus will be the primary driver of financial markets in 2014. The end of the Fed’s QE III program could cause a temporary downturn in U.S. equity markets – similar to the end of earlier programs. Earnings growth and reasonable valuations have the potential to support moderate stock market gains, but significantly lower than in 2013. Many factors are likely to pose challenges for investors: Debt loads and slow earnings growth in Europe, investment outflows in emerging markets, and rising interest rates in fixed-income markets.
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January 29, 2014
2014 Economic Forecast
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA
The author provides deeper analysis supporting his forecast that the U.S. economy is moving toward a self-sustaining recovery in 2014. He provides additional data on key drivers of expected accelerating growth: Consumer spending, housing, job growth, budget agreement in Washington, and positive global influences, such as economic reform in China. The pace of Fed tapering and rising interest rates constitute the major risk to growth, although the forecast calls for 10-Year Treasury rates to rise only moderately from 3% to 3.45% by year-end.
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